138 PIPS ON GBP USD AS USD STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FOREX MARKET - forex trading system mt4

| 0 komentar |

138 PIPS ON GBP USD AS USD STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FOREX MARKET ~ forex trading system mt4




This latest trade took advantage of the Bearish Consolidation Breakout on the Daily Chart of the GBP USD which started in the last week of December. It provided a gain of 138 Pips within 4 days, just ahead of the pullback that is now taking place. Entry was based on the Daily Charts Bearish Candlestick Signals as well as the setup on the 4 Hour Chart.


The first video below shows the description and analysis of the Daily and 4 Hour Charts before the trade was made. 





Trade Setup Video




This video shows the trade result and provides a detailed analysis of the main elements behind the breakout.






Trade Result Video




The Daily Chart below shows the Pennant Setup and Candlestick Signals that started and continued the breakout below the Support boundary. The target was set to the Breakout Equivalent (see Trading Manual & Video above) of the previous Consolidation at 1,4562.





DAILY CHART TRADE SETUP
(FXCM Charts used for Entry Signals based on the New York Close of the Daily Candle)





After analyzing the Setup on the 4 Hour Chart and being satisfied that it met the requirements for the trade, an Entry Order was set. Within 4 Days, the trading target was hit.





DAILY CHART TRADE RESULT
(Dukascopy Charts used for actual trades)



The Breakout Equivalent is the target to which Consolidations head towards before pulling back. It is therefore the best area to exit when it comes to these types of trades. This is being confirmed by the pullback now taking place on the 1 Hour Chart with a Tweezer Bottom - a common Candlestick Signal that leads to reversals.





TWEEZER BOTTOM RALLY 1 HOUR CHART





TRADE SUMMARY


Identifying Consolidation Setups and entering at the right time can be the easier parts of these trades. However, deciding where to exit is a common dilemma. By being able to accurately spot these pullback areas that are associated with Consolidations ahead of time, we can take the guess work out of where to take profit when it comes to these popular but challenging setups.




__________________________________________






More info for 138 PIPS ON GBP USD AS USD STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FOREX MARKET ~ forex trading system mt4:
Read More..

Can a trader be a do gooder - best forex trading strategy videos

| 0 komentar |

Can a trader be a do gooder ~ best forex trading strategy videos


It occurs to me that the only way in which a trader can become more than a completely selfish, self-enriching, narcissistic person is to trade well enough so that you can manage other peoples money and thus saving these investors from crooks and charlatans (provided you are convinced you are not a crook and charlatan yourself).

Other traders have advanced other arguments in favor of trading. But I am not convinced by them.

They say that we provide liquidity to other long-term investors who may need to liquidate their investments. But then, this applies only to mean-reversal strategies. Momentum strategies take away liquidity from the market, and in some cases exacerbating price bubbles. Certainly not something your grandma would approve.

Others argue that momentum strategies help disseminate information about companies through quick price movements. But cant we just watch Bloomberg or CNBC? Do we really need some devious insiders to convey that information to the rest of us through price movements?

No, I think that independent trading should serve only one purpose (besides short-term self-sustenance): as training and preparation to become a fund manager. Once you graduated from independent trading, you then enter into the grand contest among all fund managers to see who can best serve and protect investors assets, (and be rewarded according to your standing in this contest.)

I know, this is the idealistic way to look at things. Serving and protecting seem to be what policemen should be doing, not traders. But as in quantitative trading, I think it helps one becomes more successful in ones activities by having a simple guiding principle or model. And it doesnt hurt that in this case, the principle would also be conscience-nourishing!
More info for Can a trader be a do gooder ~ best forex trading strategy videos:
Read More..

SUMMARY OF 35 RATE OF RETURN - mbfx forex trading system v2.0

| 0 komentar |

SUMMARY OF 35 RATE OF RETURN ~ mbfx forex trading system v2.0




The last 13 Months have proven to be both challenging and rewarding with this new Price Action Swing Trading Methodology. Transitioning from Day Trading to Swing Trading is very difficult especially if you - like myself- have spent most of your trading years glued to the computer screen in search of immediate gains each day, only to be constantly disappointed. Swing Trading solves most of the problems associated with Day Trading and provides a more solid foundation upon which to establish a viable source of Long-Term Wealth.


THE PERFORMANCE

The Trade Setup Service, which was started on July 1, 2014, involves providing detailed trade information on trading opportunities on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts for Subscribers to trade on their personal accounts. Assuming a level of risk of 5% per trade, a Subscriber would now have generated a Rate of Return equivalent to 35%-from 15 Trades. This has come from 9 winning trades and 6 losses.



RATE OF RETURN
JULY 1, 2014 - JULY 23, 2015




At this current rate of growth, this Subscriber would now only need 6 more trades to achieve a remarkable Rate of Return of 100%. 




100% RATE OF RETURN IN 3 MONTHS
         (Assumes an Average Risk & Gain of 105 Pips and 150 Pips, respectively)




By continuing to trade the Currency Markets with this unique Methodology, you too will be able to attain your major Short to Long-Term Monetary Goals. 



THE STRATEGY

FXCM Charts are used to provide the entry signals from the Daily Chart, as this platform uses the New York Close Candle of the Daily Chart - crucial to this Price Action Methodology. Stop Losses range from 90 and 120 Pips, depending on the time frame used, while the targeted Pips Per Trade is between 100 to 200 Pips. Targeting fewer than 100 Pips exposes your trades to the more volatile, lower probability setups while aiming above 200 Pips risks pullbacks that take away your gains.

Trades are usually held for a few days, with the actual number of days depending on the individual trade. This holding period acts as an anchor that controls our greed so that we do not hold out for more than the market is offering. Based on this rule, some of these trades have had to be closed earlier than planned if they had not reached their targets on the last day of the holding period.


THE TRADES 

Following a somewhat shaky start with the initial 100 Pip loss on the AUD USD, the Methodology was able to recover with consistent gains in subsequent months. These included the AUD NZD, the AUD USD and the GBP CAD.



AUD NZD TRADE - 69 PIPS




AUD USD TRADE - 148 PIPS





GBP CAD TRADE - 199 PIPS



The AUD NZD trade was an example of a trade that had to be closed early. The original target of over 100 Pips was expected to be hit within the allotted time, especially since we were breaking out from a Consolidation. However, even though I believed that this was going to go higher, I had to closed the trade in order to comply with my rule. As you can appreciate from that pullback below the Trend Line, this was the correct decision - a difficult one after an initial loss, but a necessary one.

The AUD USD trade was a prime example of the discipline and patience demanded of us in order to be successful Swing Traders. As you can see from the graph, there was a sharp pullback bullish that took the trade right back to the Entry Price just before it U-Turned to hit our target. Had we been constantly monitoring the trade as we used to do as Day Traders, we would have began to panic and second-guess ourselves tempting us to close the trade for a small gain. After all, a small gain is always better than a loss any day of the week. However....

If a trade is going to be successful, it has to be allowed to move according to the natural waves of the market. Ideally, we want our trades to move quickly to our targets - as was the case with the GBP CAD above - but the reality is that the market does not always move on our schedule. In order for winning trades to captured, therefore, we must not interfere with the natural dynamic of the market.

It is for this reason that I have included in the Trade Setup sent to Subscribers, the Guideline of never monitoring a trade while it is in motion.







Configure your trading platform so that you only see that the trade is still open without seeing the actual graph, floating balance or account balance. This is a crucial safeguard required to keep our emotions out of the picture.

As with all strategies, there are periods of losing streaks that have to be faced before we can continue towards our targets. The last three trades have led to losses with the latest one coming from the GBP USD. Although these periods are challenging, they are easier to face and overcome compared to Day Trading. This is because the time in between Swing Trades is sufficient to allow us to objectively analyze these trades and regain our composure and objectivity ahead of the next opportunity.

With Day Trading, we believed we could not afford to sit back because there was always another trade within a few hours that could erase the losing ones and make us "feel better". This left little time to ensure that the next trade was not hastily and emotionally taken in order get quick "revenge" on the market and the brokers.


SUMMARY

If Long-Term Wealth is your goal, then Swing Trading the Currency Market will definitely help you along this journey. We have been made to believe that things need to happen immediately and that waiting patiently for anything is the greatest sin of all. Rome was not built in a day and neither is significant Financial Independence. The Forex Market is a very attractive market to trade but where is stated that the only way to benefit from it is to trade it every day or whenever we want?

By trading only twice per month and thereby minimizing your exposure to this dangerous market, that 35% Return is comparable to most conservative investments instruments. Even if you decided to risk only 2% Per Trade, you would have still earned a significant return of 14%...




RATE OF RETURN AT 2% RISK PER TRADE




In either case, you would be right up there with the best in the industry...











_______________________________________


______________________________________________







_______________________________________________




_______________________________________________





More info for SUMMARY OF 35 RATE OF RETURN ~ mbfx forex trading system v2.0:
Read More..

How does the financial crisis affect quantitative trading - forex trading system 96 percent winners

| 0 komentar |

How does the financial crisis affect quantitative trading ~ forex trading system 96 percent winners


Now that we are reasonably sure the financial world is not coming to an end yet, it is reasonable to ask how quantitative strategies have been faring under this extreme market stress. Despite reports of massive hedge fund deleveraging and negative YTD returns, I believe quantitative strategies, especially statistical arbitrage, have survived the period relatively unscathed. But here are a few of my thoughts:

1) The paltry 10% annual returns that a mediocre statarb fund can deliver is suddenly looking pretty good when the risk-free rate is under 1% and a prolonged bear market is on the horizon.

2) Mean-reversal models continue to beat momentum models in this crisis environment, as in previous crisis environments. This is not surprising because market returns have completely dominated specific returns, and of course market returns have been highly mean-reverting lately.

3) Models involving shorts are under some tumoil because of regime-change induced by new and ever-changing short-sale regulations. (For a while, I even have difficulties locating SPY for hedging purposes!)

4) Models are generally trained on data with far lower volatility than is recently realized. (Even incorporting VIX in a model does not guarantee that it can match realized volatility any better.)
As a result, P&Ls fluctuations are also much higher than usual, which induces deleveraging as a risk-management measure, which drains liquidity from the market, which in turn leads to still higher volatility. The usual viscious cycle.

5) Political risks in an election year have further reduced leverage and increased volatility. What if there is an assassination? What if the wrong party got elected? What if the paper-trailess electronic voting machines cause another dispute for a month? The nightmares will continue at least until the morning of Nov 5.

6) Normally, lack of liquidity in the market is good for statarb models since they profit from renting out temporary liquidity. However, this profitability assumes that there are buyers of last resort for the market: the long-term investors, the mutual funds, Warren Buffet, etc. When they are absent, statarb investors can be left holding the bag. Fortunately, Warren Buffet & Co. has indeed stepped in and we statarb traders can breathe a sigh of relief.

7) I have been paying particular attention to 3 websites since the crisis began in order to judge whether I should return to my normal leverage: the Ted spread (I am waiting for it to return to below 2), the Calculated Risk blog, and Paul Krugmans blog. This crisis is caused by panic in the credit market, so we should look for credit market returning to normal before declaring victory. The VIX? Not so much because I believe it is backward-looking in this environment.

8) Watching Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG, WaMu, Wachovia, Iceland, and the initial bailout bill failed feels like reading Chapter 8 of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: "The Ministry has fallen. Scrimgeour is dead. They are coming." The Dark Lord is taking over our economy.
More info for How does the financial crisis affect quantitative trading ~ forex trading system 96 percent winners:
Read More..

Statistical electoral vote predictor Update - forex trading system price action

| 1 komentar |

Statistical electoral vote predictor Update ~ forex trading system price action


For readers who have been tracking the Gott and Colley presidential electoral vote prediction, they will notice a sudden switch over to a predicted Obama victory in the last few days. That is because polls from OH, VA and MO are now available -- surprising because the 3 states are not hitherto known for their Democratic leanings.

It seems to me that, after all, the stability of prediction at this early date is quite questionable due to the paucity of state polls, a point already made by Dr. Colley.
More info for Statistical electoral vote predictor Update ~ forex trading system price action:
Read More..

GBP USD CLOSE TO WEEKLY RANGE - forex trading system rules

| 0 komentar |

GBP USD CLOSE TO WEEKLY RANGE ~ forex trading system rules


The GBP USD has been moving in step with the EURO USD as both pairs decline in sync with strong gains for the Greenback across the Forex market.  Similar to the EURO USD, the Sterling pair is closing in on its Weekly Range target which lies only 120 pips away. When that area is hit in the next few days, we could see a temporary pullback or consolidation take place before the downtrend continues. On the other hand, the slow and staggered nature of the downtrend also points to the possibility of a large Range being formed in the months ahead.


Daily Chart below shows that the pair is very close to hitting its first Weekly Range target of the new downtrend.


DAILY CHART



Within a very short time after hitting this price area, we could see one of two alternate scenarios unfolding.


SCENARIO 1

  • A Pullback/Small Consolidation;
  • New Bearish Signal to Continue Downtrend;

If the downtrend is going to continue in the next few weeks, we could either have a temporary pullback or a small consolidation being formed. This will then give way to another bearish signal to resume the existing trend direction.


DAILY CHART

  
After resuming the trend, the currency pair will decline until the 2nd Weekly Range Target is hit.


SCENARIO 2

  • A Rally that starts a Consolidation;

The slow nature of the downtrend suggests that a Consolidation could also be formed over the next few months. If this is going to take the form of a Range, then the Weekly Range target that will be hit would represent the Support boundary of that Range.


DAILY CHART
 
















Only time and traders will show us what actually transpires in the next few days. However, given the manner in which currency pairs behave based on the types of candles and their Weekly Range, these are likely to be the scenarios to look out for going forward.





RECENT EMAIL FROM CLIENT









____________________________________________________


SUBSCRIBE TODAY

____________________________________________________



Buy Now
US$120.00



Support independent publishing: Buy this e-book on Lulu.

Free 
 ___________________________________________


Duane Shepherd 
(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

More info for GBP USD CLOSE TO WEEKLY RANGE ~ forex trading system rules:
Read More..

Pairs Trading Workshop in Hong Kong - forex trading trendline strategy

| 0 komentar |

Pairs Trading Workshop in Hong Kong ~ forex trading trendline strategy


For my readers in Asia, I will be conducting a pairs trading workshop in Hong Kong on March 10-11. This workshop is organized by the Technical Analyst magazine and is similar to the one I gave in London last year.
However, I have added a few useful insights based on audience feedback. As always, no prior knowledge of Matlab or advanced statistics is assumed. The numerous in-class exercises should be sufficient to bring your Matlab programming skills up to speed.


More info for Pairs Trading Workshop in Hong Kong ~ forex trading trendline strategy:
Read More..