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GBP USD CLOSE TO WEEKLY RANGE - forex trading system rules

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GBP USD CLOSE TO WEEKLY RANGE ~ forex trading system rules


The GBP USD has been moving in step with the EURO USD as both pairs decline in sync with strong gains for the Greenback across the Forex market.  Similar to the EURO USD, the Sterling pair is closing in on its Weekly Range target which lies only 120 pips away. When that area is hit in the next few days, we could see a temporary pullback or consolidation take place before the downtrend continues. On the other hand, the slow and staggered nature of the downtrend also points to the possibility of a large Range being formed in the months ahead.


Daily Chart below shows that the pair is very close to hitting its first Weekly Range target of the new downtrend.


DAILY CHART



Within a very short time after hitting this price area, we could see one of two alternate scenarios unfolding.


SCENARIO 1

  • A Pullback/Small Consolidation;
  • New Bearish Signal to Continue Downtrend;

If the downtrend is going to continue in the next few weeks, we could either have a temporary pullback or a small consolidation being formed. This will then give way to another bearish signal to resume the existing trend direction.


DAILY CHART

  
After resuming the trend, the currency pair will decline until the 2nd Weekly Range Target is hit.


SCENARIO 2

  • A Rally that starts a Consolidation;

The slow nature of the downtrend suggests that a Consolidation could also be formed over the next few months. If this is going to take the form of a Range, then the Weekly Range target that will be hit would represent the Support boundary of that Range.


DAILY CHART
 
















Only time and traders will show us what actually transpires in the next few days. However, given the manner in which currency pairs behave based on the types of candles and their Weekly Range, these are likely to be the scenarios to look out for going forward.





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(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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800 PIPS ON OFFER FROM GBP USD DECLINE - trading system forex octopus

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800 PIPS ON OFFER FROM GBP USD DECLINE ~ trading system forex octopus


Having formed a small Pennant just below the major Resistance of a larger Pennant, the GBP USD could be headed towards the Support area some 800 Pips away. If we see a strong bearish signal below the Support of this smaller Pennant, traders can expect a big payday in the weeks ahead.


DAILY CHART- LARGE PENNANT
























  • Formed following the end of the safe-haven buying of US Dollars during the Financial Crisis;
  • Has now pulled back to the Resistance of the Pennant following a breakout;
  • Could break Support to continue the new Downtrend in favour of the USD to reflect the end of Quantitative Easing;


This downtrend has been in place since July this year after forming the high of 1,7190.


DAILY CHART - DOWNTREND




















  



If this downtrend is going to continue, we will need to see a convincing bearish breakout signal following the test of the Support of this smaller Pennant.


DAILY CHART - PENNANT SETUP
























 Over 800 Pips of profits would be offered during this breakout. Some traders will enter and hold their position for the entire duration of this decline, while most will take gains and re-enter according to their profit goals and holding period constraints. But given that these trends have...

  1. False entry signals;
  2. Pullbacks & small Consolidations;
  3. Weak Stop Loss areas;

...how do you determine when to enter and where to place your Stop Loss to protect your trade from the natural waves of the market? How do you know which time frame to follow in case the trend starts to reverse unexpectedly before that Support area is hit?






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(See "SWING TRADING STRATEGY & TRADE RESULTS" for Product Details)
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Duane Shepherd 
(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING 





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EURO USD MAJOR DECLINE TO SUPPORT AT 1 2154 - forex trading renko system

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EURO USD MAJOR DECLINE TO SUPPORT AT 1 2154 ~ forex trading renko system


As the EURO USD continues to decline, a temporary pullback appears to be on the horizon in the next few days as the pair approaches its 2nd Weekly Range price target. Since this area will also coincide with the Monthly Range also being hit, a significant rally or consolidation is expected after that price point is reached. Following this pause in the downtrend, gains for the USD will resume as it sets its sight on the major Support area of 1,2154.

The first graph below shows that we are just about 100 Pips away from the 2nd Weekly Range and the Monthly Range being hit. Based on the average Weekly Range of the EURO USD, this target is expected to be at the 1,3307 area.


DAILY CHART
 
















In most cases, currency pairs tend to pullback or go through a period of consolidation when the 2nd Weekly Range is hit. At that area, they will either start a new trend or resume the existing trend with another strong setup and signal. With this new downtrend having been formed with the break of the Inner and Outer Trend Lines of the uptrend started in July of 2012, a continuation in the current direction is expected.


DAILY CHART



This new trend has also led to a break back inside of the Resistance of the large Pennant setup. We are therefore likely to see a long-term decline to the Support area at 1,2154, over 1,200 Pips away.


DAILY CHART


Along the way, the market is expected to pullback at major past Support areas that can also be used as profit-taking targets. Some traders who trade against the trend will also be buying at these areas, while others will be selling as the pullbacks give way to the resumption of the strong long-term downtrend.


DAILY CHART



In trading these movements in the direction of the trend, one must ensure that the setups and signals are strong and clear enough. Naturally I recommend the setups in my Trading Manual based on Price Action, but if you are a Day Trader and/or someone who uses indicators, ensure that your analysis is spot on to capture the large number of pips that will be on offer over the next few months.





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 ___________________________________________


Duane Shepherd 
(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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199 PIPS ON GBP CAD TRADE PUSHES RETURN UP TO 22 - best forex news trading system

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199 PIPS ON GBP CAD TRADE PUSHES RETURN UP TO 22 ~ best forex news trading system




The Swing Trading Methodology continues to produce results with the most recent gain of 199 Pips on the GBP CAD. This brings the overall return from the strategy to 22% since it was launched in July, from only 8 trades. As it stands, clients are now only 8 trades away from a return of 100%, which is likely to be reached in the first four months of 2015. The Demo Account, which lags the Live Account by just 3 trades, is now up 17% since it was opened in October.

The Range Consolidation on the Daily Chart of this pair was initially broken short a few days ago, indicating the potential start of a sharp bearish breakout. However, given that the pair had already provided 3-Waves of Bearish Signals in breaking the Support boundary, a bullish pullback was always expected.


DAILY CHART




This reversal began a few days later with the appearance of Bullish Signals and a break of the Downtrend Line.


DAILY CHART
























At this juncture, there were two possible scenarios that could have unfolded. The first was for the pair to continue its reversal and break back inside the Range, rallying sharply to the Resistance boundary once more.


DAILY CHART

























This sharp rally would be typical of what takes place with False Breakouts. Not only would the reversal take the pair quickly to the other end of the Consolidation, they often lead to breakouts at the other end of the setup for even stronger gains for traders. Despite the bullish signals that initially favoured such a move, we also had to consider the bearish scenario as well.

The boundaries of Consolidations are often "tested" for a brief period before resuming the breakout. This "test" often takes the form of a U-Turn or a break of a small Consolidation setup formed at that area. A sharp bearish breakout following such a pullback was also a scenario to be considered.


DAILY CHART 

























As it turned out, the bullish scenario eventually took precedence as the pair provided an ABC Reversal Signal to continue the False Breakout Reversal. The pair of Double Bottoms below the Range also provided support for the trade. 


DAILY CHART
FXCM Charts are used to provide signals based on the New York Candle Close of the Daily Chart






















Given this strong setup and signal, entry then took place on the 4 Hour Chart. The Stop Loss was placed below the Range and the Entry Order set just above its Resistance in expectation of a pullback. This would allow our Stop Loss to comply with the 120-Pip maximum for entries based on the Daily Chart. 


4 HOUR CHART



















This was the Entry Trade Sheet as sent to my Subscribers;


TRADE SUMMARY & SETUP 


PAIR
GBP CAD
TRADE TYPE
FALSE CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT
ENTRY DATE
TODAY, DECEMBER 8, 2014
TRADE DIRECTION
LONG/BUY
ENTRY TYPE
ENTRY ORDER
ENTRY PRICE (MAXIMUM)
1,7904
STOP LOSS
1,7784
LIMIT ORDER
1,8104


MAXIMUM HOLDING PERIOD
7 DAYS - WEDNESDAY DEC. 17, 2014
DAILY TIME CHECK
21 00 GMT




After pulling back to test the Resistance of the Range our Entry Order was triggered. Following the U-Turn to resume the breakout, the target was hit a few days later.


4 HOUR CHART




















DAILY CHART- LIVE ACCOUNT RESULT
























This movement to our target was very fast. Given that we had the combination of the Double Bottoms, a False Breakout Setup and the ABC Signal - which individually always lead to sharp movements - the short duration of the trade was not a surprise. 

The main Technical factors involved in this trade were;


  • The 3-Wave Rule (Section 4 - Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market);
  • Double Bottoms (Section 3 - Currency Trading with the Daily & 4 Hour Charts);
  • False Consolidation Breakouts (Section 6 - Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market);
  • ABC Signals (Section 6 - Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market);



Placing this trade in a larger context, the Methodology has now produced a 22% Rate of Return since it started in July of this year. Only 8 trades have been made so far with a simplistic assumption that will be no further losses, clients are only a handful of trades away from realizing a 100% return.



RATE OF RETURN AS AT DECEMBER 12, 2014



These projections assume that each of the next trades will provide a 150 Pip value, which is the average of our 100 to 200 Pip target range. An FXCM Demo Account was opened on October 1, 2014 to track these trades and is now up 17% after 5 trades. This account would also only require 8 trades for the 100% target.



RATE OF RETURN - DEMO ACCOUNT




DEMO TRADES MADE





ACCOUNT BALANCE




When these results are compared with the Year-To-Date returns as at September 30, 2014 of the Top 10 Currency Traders as ranked by BarclayHedge...



SEPTEMBER YEAR-TO-DATE RETURNS OF CURRENCY TRADERS 




....the Methodology so far, appears to be able to hold its own.

Naturally, for reasons of privacy, I only share the results of individual trades on my Live Account without showing my actual Trading Account. However, since this Demo Account is only behind by 3 trades and is audited by the trade verification services of MyfxBook, you can be assured of the integrity of the information you see here.



RATE OF RETURN- DEMO ACCOUNT

(http://www.myfxbook.com/members/DRFXTRADING/duane/1079693)



The style of trading that has produced these results is both conservative and high-paying. Trading is only done 1 to 2 times per month, minimizing the exposure of your capital to the volatility of the market. When trading is conducted, however, only the highest paying Swing Trading opportunities that have the largest probability of success are targeted.



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KIWI DOLLAR LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHARP AUSSIE DECLINE - new forex manual trading system

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KIWI DOLLAR LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHARP AUSSIE DECLINE ~ new forex manual trading system


Given the strong positive correlation between the AUD USD and the NZD USD, the NZD USD could resume its bearish trend following the recent decline of the Aussie Dollar by nearly 600 Pips.

The Aussie Dollar has been steadily declining over the last several days after breaking the Support of the very large Pennant setup.


DAILY CHART- AUD USD





In breaking out of this Pennant, the pair broke a smaller Pennant and a Counter Trend Line that tested the Support before starting the breakout.


DAILY CHART-AUD USD






















Whenever large Consolidations are being broken, they normally form these smaller setups at Resistance and Support which "test" the strength of these boundaries before breaking out.

For its part, the Kiwi Dollar has also formed a small Pennant at the Support of its large Pennant as well, but has not yet provided us with a breakout signal.


DAILY CHART- NZD USD

























DAILY CHART- NZD USD






















Although both pairs are highly correlated, without a breakout signal, the Kiwi Dollar is now equally likely to rally back inside of the Pennant as it is to break short. If a breakout short takes place, it would be in sync with the trend on the Aussie Dollar, leading to strong gains for the US Dollar over the next several months. However, a False Breakout Reversal inside could also keep this correlation in tact if it coincides with a temporary pullback in the Aussie Dollar.

The main reason that the Aussie Dollar trade is on the Demo Account is that the breakout started and continued with Weak Candles. These types of signals tend to be associated with slow breakouts that can provide large trading gains. However, they are also notorious for leading to False Consolidation Breakouts....


DAILY CHART - NZD USD


















Once a strong signal is provided in either direction, Live Account trading of this pair is likely to be highly profitable. Distinguishing between these types of candles is therefore very important to avoid False Breakouts and unnecessary losses (Section 8 " Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market").



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Duane Shepherd
(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING
Website: www.drfxswingtrading.com

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