255 PIPS ON OFFER FROM NZD CAD THIS WEEK - forex mutant trading system

255 PIPS ON OFFER FROM NZD CAD THIS WEEK ~ forex mutant trading system

A Large Range Setup appears to be forming on the Daily Chart of the NZD CAD that could offer us up to 255 Pips this week. The Support Boundary has already been formed at the 0,8335 area and once we see continued gains for the CAD, this will take us back to Support and complete the Resistance Boundary and the Range.

The overall setup can be seen in the graph below. The pattern of movements that have taken place in the last few months appears to indicate the formation of this large Consolidation in the days ahead.

POSSIBLE RANGE SETUP - DAILY CHART

If the pair continues to decline in the next few days, the Resistance Boundary would be formed at 0,8855 to complement the Support area at 0,8335.

RESISTANCE & SUPPORT BOUNDARIES - DAILY CHART

With a distance of 255 Pips from the current market price to the Support area, Swing Traders could realize a large trading gain once the pair gets going again. This would follow the current sideways movement now taking place on the Daily & 4 Hour Charts.

EXPECTED TRADING GAINS - DAILY CHART

PENNANT SETUP - 4 HOUR CHART

When this downtrend finally resumes, we will actually be continuing the breakout from this Pennant Setup. The Support was initially broken with a Bearish Candle and has been followed by a pull back and U-Turn as the market "tests" the broken Support. Once this is done and we start to see additional bear candles, short positions can be opened as long as our Entry and Stop Loss Placements are correctly done according to the Trade Sheet for Consolidation Breakouts from the Trading Manual...

It is fairly easy for us to spot Consolidation Setups and trade them after they have been formed across all time frames. However, the challenge has always been to spot the signs that they are being formed so that we can quickly adjust our strategies from a Trend Trading one to a Consolidation Trading strategy. 


So how do we trade this?


There are several technical factors in the currency market that tell us when these setups are being formed. Many of them relate to how long a trend has been in place before it begins to move sideways or whether we have recently broken a major Trend Line. These and many other factors that lead to these setups can be found in Section 4 Part 2 of the Manual...

As soon as you spot these factors at work on your charts, you can begin drawing the expected lines of Support and Resistance. Once the distance between these boundaries is far enough to allow for trades of between 100 and 200 Pips - comfortably - strong gains can be had as long as the trade meets the requirements set out in Part 3 of the Manual...

The key is to now wait on the appropriate signal on the Daily Chart to start taking advantage of the move to Support and the breakout from the 4 Hour Chart Pennant.

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Swing Trading vs Day Trading Has the Debate Ended - omni forex trading system review

Swing Trading vs Day Trading Has the Debate Ended ~ omni forex trading system review

Within the context of the ongoing debate between Swing Trading and Day Trading, these early results from my Methodology appear to tip scale decisively towards Swing Trading. Only 7 trades have been done so far and to date, the results have already beaten the Year-to-Date returns of 80% of the Top Traders Ranked by BarclayHedge. With only 9 trades left for this strategy to generate a 100% return for my clients (sadly, cost of Manual will go up accordingly- see Table), Day Trading may soon by a thing of the past as you spend less time trading and more time earning.

Currency Trading can be a very lucrative means of earning income on a short and long-term basis. The most popular way of doing this by traders has been to profit from the intra-day changes in a currency’s value, during the most liquid trading sessions of the day. However, given the difficulty of consistently modelling the random price behaviour of a financial asset class at this micro level, sustainable success from this approach can be an elusive goal. Instead, if traders focused on the clearer trends provided by the Larger Time Frames, they can achieve of more consistent rate of success.

Swing Trading takes advantage of the clearer and more reliable breakout signals and trends of the Daily and 4 Hour Charts. It is a style of trading that is similar to Long-Term Trend trading in which positions are taken based on the longer-term fundamental value of a currency. However, given the time horizon of Swing Trades - 2 to 7 days- some of these trades will either be in line with that value or diverge from it in the short-term.

Among the benefits of Swing Trading are;

• Stronger Trends with Larger Pips per Trade;
• Accuracy of Signals, with fewer False Breakouts;
• Predictable Times for Analysis and Trade Execution;
• Fewer Trades needed for Large Rates of Return;
• Compatibility with a non-Forex 9-5 Schedule;

This style of trading also allows traders to sidestep the volatility surrounding the release of macroeconomic data each week. Several important reports related to the major currencies can provide an indication about market direction during the day. Nevertheless, due to the subjective and conflicting interpretation of these by traders, large spikes in prices tend to appear, taking out small Stop Losses and eroding the Day Trader’s profitability.

In addition to the significant personal benefits, Retail Traders will also be better able to offer their services to Prop Trading houses and Hedge Funds that want this style of trading - earning very large commissions in the process. Based on these early results...

RATE OF RETURN FROM METHODOLOGY

...this should not be hard to do.

 

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Duane Shepherd

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING
Website: www.drfxswingtrading.com

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Columbia Workshop on Financial Engineering - forex trading strategies that work pdf

Columbia Workshop on Financial Engineering ~ forex trading strategies that work pdf

Our readers in New York may be interested in this finance workshop at Columbia University tomorrow.
I am particularly interested in the talk by Kent Daniel on "Characterizing Momentum", and by Doug Borden (of Knight Equity Markets) on "Stochastic Control Theory in High-Frequency Trading". Dougs talk can be downloaded here.

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800 PIPS ON OFFER FROM GBP USD DECLINE - trading system forex octopus

800 PIPS ON OFFER FROM GBP USD DECLINE ~ trading system forex octopus

Having formed a small Pennant just below the major Resistance of a larger Pennant, the GBP USD could be headed towards the Support area some 800 Pips away. If we see a strong bearish signal below the Support of this smaller Pennant, traders can expect a big payday in the weeks ahead.


DAILY CHART- LARGE PENNANT

• Formed following the end of the safe-haven buying of US Dollars during the Financial Crisis;
• Has now pulled back to the Resistance of the Pennant following a breakout;
• Could break Support to continue the new Downtrend in favour of the USD to reflect the end of Quantitative Easing;

This downtrend has been in place since July this year after forming the high of 1,7190.


DAILY CHART - DOWNTREND

  



If this downtrend is going to continue, we will need to see a convincing bearish breakout signal following the test of the Support of this smaller Pennant.


DAILY CHART - PENNANT SETUP

 Over 800 Pips of profits would be offered during this breakout. Some traders will enter and hold their position for the entire duration of this decline, while most will take gains and re-enter according to their profit goals and holding period constraints. But given that these trends have...

1. False entry signals;
2. Pullbacks & small Consolidations;
3. Weak Stop Loss areas;

...how do you determine when to enter and where to place your Stop Loss to protect your trade from the natural waves of the market? How do you know which time frame to follow in case the trend starts to reverse unexpectedly before that Support area is hit?

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(See "SWING TRADING STRATEGY & TRADE RESULTS" for Product Details)
_____________________________

Duane Shepherd 

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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Keep Your Shirt On Skirt Those Forex Scams - forex profit keeper trading system

Keep Your Shirt On Skirt Those Forex Scams ~ forex profit keeper trading system

by: Joseph Plazo


Whenever there is an opportunity to make large amounts of money, there will be people who are eager to jump right in and start making money. And where there are people who are eager to get rich quick with a minimum of effort on their part, there are fraudsters waiting to take their money. Experienced traders are wise enough to avoid the frauds – it’s the new traders who are most vulnerable to the forex scams that are slipping into the currency exchange market.

The U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), which regulates futures and commodities trading, warns new investors to be wary of frauds and scams that promise huge profits from your investments, in and out of the Forex market. The CFTC has issued several Consumer Fraud Alerts in connection with foreign currency trading. They offer the following tips to help you avoid being scammed.

Be skeptical of high-profit-low-risk come-ons.

“I made $1900 in one minute!” touts one sidebar ad for a Forex trading company. Ads that promise high returns on small investments with little or no risk to you are tempting bait. The fact is that while there are certainly big profits to be made in forex, there are correspondingly large losses. And most novice traders drop out of active trading by the end of their first year because they can’t afford the risk.

Be suspicious. Period.

Before you part with a penny, thoroughly check out the company or trader you’re planning to do business with. Check the CFTC’s consumer fraud alert page. Check to see if the company is registered with the CFTC, or is a member of the National Futures Association. Check to see if there’s any disciplinary action against the firm or company. Get even more basic. Get a valid address and telephone number, and verify that it belongs to the company. Check to be sure the person you’re dealing with actually works for the company. Especially if you’re doing business on the Internet, it’s very easy for a scammer to fake credentials.

Be wary of sending money over the Internet.

The Internet has made it incredibly easy for scammers to operate. It only costs $6.95 a month to have a professional looking web site hosted – that’s pennies a day to reach millions of potential marks. Before you part with credit card numbers, bank account transfer permissions or wire transfers, be sure to check out the company with all the authorities listed above.

Beware high pressure sales tactics.

Legitimate dealers don’t need to contact you with unsolicited email, or pressure you into doing business with them. If someone is pushing you to invest right now, tonight, this moment, it should set off huge warning signals in your head. A real dealer is more concerned with keeping you as a customer for the long haul. He’ll be patient while you check out his credentials and reputation. A phony dealer can’t afford that luxury – he needs to get you on the hook right now, or risk losing his score.

Be cautious of companies that tell you they’ll trade for you on the ‘interbank’ market.

The interbank market is a term for a loose network of currency traders that include banks, financial institutions and large corporations. Fraudulent currency trading firms often tell customers that they’ll trade for them on the interbank market where the prices are better. It should be a warning signal to you to stay away.

While technically not ‘scams’, you should also be wary of paying good money for training courses that promise you systems that are ‘guaranteed’ to earn you high profits. If the course advertises that their system will earn you huge profits with minimal risk, or guarantee you 40% return on your money in six weeks, take the promises with a huge grain of salt. Experienced traders understand that the forex market is a time market – while it’s possible to make large amounts of money in short-term trades, finding those profitable trades is a matter of being in the right place at the right time… which means putting in the time and the effort to be there.

They also understand that they’ll lose more often than they win – the trick is to keep your losses short and your profits long. Any company that guarantees that you’ll make a profit on all or most of your profits is coloring their advertising. Stick with trusted companies whose credentials you can verify and whose background you can check.
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RATE OF RETURN NOW 13 0 ON SMALL AUD CAD TRADE - forex odyssey trading system

RATE OF RETURN NOW 13 0 ON SMALL AUD CAD TRADE ~ forex odyssey trading system

This trade was intended to take advantage of a sharp breakout short from a Pennant Consolidation, with the target set for its Breakout Equivalent. All Consolidations have Breakout Equivalents (B.E.) - it is the area that they break towards before pulling back. They will either pause here to then resume the trend or become volatile and reverse. Nevertheless, once spotted and measured accurately, one should either be exiting your trades there (see the AUD USD 148 Pip Trade and the AUD NZD 70 Pip Trade) or avoiding entries at these areas altogether.

In this instance, the pair had already broken out from a previous Range and was now breaking a Pennant. 



DAILY CHART - AUD CAD

(FXCM Charts used for Trade Signals- Dukascopy used for Live Trades)

Based on the way I had originally measured the B.E. for this Range, it would not be hit until a few hundred pips. However after analyzing the chart again for confirmation that my Entry Setup was correct, I realized the error and exited immediately. This provided only a small gain of 9,6 Pips, but was much better than what would have taken place if it was left any longer.


This was the entry setup on the 4 Hour Chart. It required waiting on the market to pullback so that my Stop Loss would have met the criterion in the strategy.


4 HOUR CHART - TRADE SETUP

Entry then took place as the market pulled back to trigger the entry but shortly after, I realized that this B.E. was actually at the Entry Price of my trade.


DAILY CHART

Luckily I was able to come out before the rally took place, which would have taken out the Stop Loss.


DAILY CHART- PULLBACK

Following this trade which pushed the rate of return to 13.0%, my Subscribers are still 9 trades away from a 100% return.

RATE OF RETURN FROM METHODOLOGY

The FXCM Demo Account that you will see in MyFxbook does not reflect this trade. The entry order was not triggered due to the natural differences in prices that takes place across trading platforms.


Mistakes like these are par for the course. Sometimes they lead to large losses, but sometimes you get lucky with only a small loss or gain. It can be very difficult to exit a trade that has the potential for large gains. However, this is perhaps the best trading decision that one will make when large sums of your funds or those of your clients are at stake.

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Duane Shepherd

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING
Website: www.drfxswingtrading.com

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3 WAVE RULE DENIES BEARS ON CAD CHF - forex trading social network trading system

3 WAVE RULE DENIES BEARS ON CAD CHF ~ forex trading social network trading system

What looked like a promising bearish breakout has now turned Bullish with a sharp U-Turn that appears to have come out of thin air. However, based on our 3-Wave Rule of market trends, this pullback was always expected at some point in time.

Daily Chart below shows the strong Bull Candle that is now heading back to the broken Support barrier.


DAILY CHART

The cause of this reversal was the trend on the 4 Hour Chart. Several waves of bearish setups had led to that Daily Bearish Signal that broke the Range Support. However, pullbacks such as these are always to be expected to take place, making a short position an unwise one.


4 HOUR CHART

This technical aspect of trends can be seen across the Forex Market on all time frames. If there are several of these waves on a lower time frame, the immediate higher time frame will eventually pullback sharply.

In situations like these, we will either see a continuation of this rally that takes us back up to Resistance (False Consolidation Breakout Reversal)...


DAILY CHART

....or a U-Turn after testing Support to resume breakout...


DAILY CHART

In either case, the signal on the Daily Chart will have to be strong enough to justify entry such as the case with the GBP CAD trade (see Recent Trades).

Lets wait and see what unfolds.

In the meantime....

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________________________________________

Duane Shepherd

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING
Website: www.drfxswingtrading.com

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Further debate on factor models - forex basket trading system

Further debate on factor models ~ forex basket trading system

A reader from a hedge fund (who wishes to remain anonymous) sends me some thoughtful comments about factor models. He has graciously allowed me to reprint them here:

"With regards to your blog entry, The Robin Hood regime: this weekend I was actually also thinking about the philosophy behind factor models which you allude to in the post. I am wondering if you have any other thoughts as to what service factor models provide? Relegating them to just arrogant bets on the correctness of the managers convictions isn’t completely intellectually satisfying to me.

I look at factors as such: the returns I get for exposure to various factors can come either because the market is inefficient and systematically misprices those factors (alpha), and/or because I am providing some service via the exposure (and collecting some kind of risk premium associated with that service). My question #1 to you is, are you convinced that all of the returns to factor models are indeed simply from risk premiums and not alpha? If alpha exists, it’s less clear that a service needs to be provided to the market, at least to me.

However, let’s assume (as I believe your boss did) that in the long run, the market is efficient. Then, you will be compensated for factor exposure only by bearing some risk or providing some service. In my mind, some particular conviction of a manager doesn’t necessarily qualify for a risk factor in and of itself - I think we agree on that point. But are there possible fundamental, valuation-based explanations behind these factors? Perhaps low VALUE companies are generally those companies with bad recent performance but which are expected to turnaround / mean-revert (as you somewhat suggest in your post) and the risk you bear when buying a low P/E company is “turnaround risk”. Or perhaps high MOMENTUM companies are companies riding an industry trend and you are bearing “trend continuation risk”. So, my question #2 to you is, are you convinced that there are no such explanations?

If factor models do indeed work, it seems to me that there must either be real risks behind the factors, or alpha, or both."

And here is my response:

"I believe the service that some value factors provide is the efficient allocation of capital to those companies that deserve them, just like any value investors do. In this case, the factors hope to identify these companies faster than humans can, and therefore bring capital to them sooner. I have no argument with these factors as they also provide liquidity, albeit on a longer time-scale. However, with regard to various momentum factors, they are in fact just betting on certain behavioral characteristics of investors, or on the slow dissemination of news, etc. You can argue that they provide a service by improving the efficiency with which information about companies disseminate. But the problem is that once everybody are using these momentum factors, the market becomes efficient and any further bets generate losses.

So I am quite willing to accept that many of these (momentum) factors represent alpha, but these factors are generating more losses as more investors employ them. I am also willing to accept that many of the (value) factors represent risk premia. As more investors employ these, the profit goes to zero, but fortunately not negative as the risk also disappears."

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My book on Quantitative Trading is published - forex trading system 96 winners

My book on Quantitative Trading is published ~ forex trading system 96 winners

My book on Quantitative Trading has been published and is now available from Amazon.com. Many thanks to all of you for your ideas, comments, and support!
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105 PIPS ON EURO USD TRADE - forex on heaven trading system

105 PIPS ON EURO USD TRADE ~ forex on heaven trading system

As the Euro continues its slow but steady decline against the US Dollar, the current value of the short trade open on this pair is now 105 Pips out of the 277 Pips targeted. This was done within the context of the strong downtrend that began in May this year after the turn at Resistance of the large Pennant on the Daily Chart. 


DAILY CHART - PENNANT SETUP




DAILY CHART - OPEN TRADE




The nearly 1400-Pip decline has provided Day and Swing Traders with many shorting opportunities along the way. This current trade, which could reach its target in a few days/weeks, was opened following the break of a Pennant on the 4 Hour Chart.


4 HOUR CHART- ENTRY SETUP




As with all breakouts short from Consolidation, the Stop Loss was placed above the Resistance. Following this entry, additional or new short positions could also have been placed at subsequent bearish signals. The Limit Order has been set to just above the Support of the larger Pennant.


4 HOUR CHART- TRADE TARGET




The trade has now been opened for 4 days and is likely to reach its target in a time period beyond the traditional Swing Trading time frame. It is also being done in a trend that is characterized by smaller Daily Candles than are normally expected for major currency pairs such as this. Major price targets that would  also be expected to lead to large pullbacks are also going unnoticed in this atypical downtrend. Nevertheless, it is a trend that can be considered to be used together with existing strategies that target shorter moves with stronger Daily Candlestick signals.

Let us see how this one unfolds together with the inversely correlated USD CHF that is also moving towards its own target;


DAILY CHART-  USD CHF



Happy Trading!

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Duane Shepherd 

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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