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Statistical electoral vote predictor Update - forex trading system price action

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Statistical electoral vote predictor Update ~ forex trading system price action


For readers who have been tracking the Gott and Colley presidential electoral vote prediction, they will notice a sudden switch over to a predicted Obama victory in the last few days. That is because polls from OH, VA and MO are now available -- surprising because the 3 states are not hitherto known for their Democratic leanings.

It seems to me that, after all, the stability of prediction at this early date is quite questionable due to the paucity of state polls, a point already made by Dr. Colley.
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Data mining and artificial intelligence update - forex trading strategies that work 2013

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Data mining and artificial intelligence update ~ forex trading strategies that work 2013


Long time readers of this blog know that I havent found data mining or artificial intelligence techniques to be very useful for my own trading, for they typically overfit to non-recurring past patterns. (Not surprisingly, they are much more useful for driverless cars.) Nevertheless, one must keep an open mind and continues to keep tabs on new developments in this field.

To this end, here is a new paper written by an engineering student at UC Berkeley which uses "support
vector machine" together with 10 simple technical indicators to predict the SPX index, purportedly with 60% accuracy. If one includes an additional indicator which measures the number of news articles on a stock in the previous day, then the accuracy supposedly goes up to 70%.

I did not have the chance to reproduce and verify this result yet, but I invite you to try it out and share your findings here. If you do so, you may find this new data mining product called 11Ants Analytics useful. It is an Excel-based software that includes 11 machine learning algorithms including the aforementioned support vector machines. It also includes decision trees which are sometimes quite useful in automatically generating a small set of trading rules from an input set of technical indicators. (Whether those rules remain profitable in the future is another question!) If you have tried this product, I would also appreciate your comments here.

(If you are a die-hard MATLAB fan, support vector machines are available in their Bioinformatics Toolbox, and classification and decision trees in their Statistics Toolbox.)
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Pair trading technologies update - forex trading strategy template

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Pair trading technologies update ~ forex trading strategy template


Pair trading was invented two decades ago, but automating its implementation has only recently become fashionable with independent traders. But once the spotlight is on, innovations come fast and furious. Here are a number of recent developments that I find interesting:


1. I mentioned previously the software called quant2ib. It is an API which allows us to get market data and send orders from a Matlab program to Interactive Brokers (IB). I have used it extensively for our trading, and it is as reliable as IBs native API. Their latest version now includes functions for constructing a "combo" security. This combo security can be pairs of stocks, ETFs, futures, etc. (with the notable exception of currencies), and the API allows you to get market data as well as to submit orders on a combo. This is a huge improvement because you can now automatically trade a pair of securities as one unit by submitting limit orders on the combo. (Previously, you would have had to submit market order on at least one side of the pair, and this would have required your program to continuously monitor the market prices and send orders when appropriate. Or else you had to give up using the API and manually enter a "generic combo" limit order in IBs TWS.)

2. Alphacet Discovery also has the ability to send limit orders on pairs, due to its partnership with Knight Trading. Besides, based on a demo that I have recently seen, they also now have great pairs portfolio and execution reporting functionality. (Full disclosure: I used to consult for them.)

3. IB itself has released a "Scale Trader" algorithm that can be applied to combos (see 1. above. Hat tip: Mohamed.) I cant explain this better than their press release: "... ScaleTrader algorithm allows clients to create conditions under which a long position in one stock is built while simultaneously creating an offsetting short position in the other. The ScaleTrader is named because investors can scale-in to market weakness by setting orders to buy as the market moves lower. Similarly, sell orders can be scaled into when a market is rising. The ScaleTrader algorithm can be programmed to buy the spread and subsequently take profit by selling the spread if the difference reaches predetermined levels set by the user." In other words, it allows us to automatically implement the "parameterless trading" or the "averaging-in" strategy that I blogged about previously without any programming on our part!

Speaking of pair trading, I will be teaching my first New York workshop in October.  (My editor inevitably picks touristy locations for these workshops. My London workshop takes place across the street from the Tower of London, my New York workshop is across from the new World Trade Center, and my Hong Kong workshop is in the "Golden Mile" shopping district of Tsim Sha Tsui.)
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An update on why quantitative funds are losing money recently - best forex trading system ever

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An update on why quantitative funds are losing money recently ~ best forex trading system ever


A story just came through Dow Jones newswire ("How Black Boxes Became Pandoras Boxes" by Spencer Jakab) suggesting that recent losses are due to factor models gone bad. Given my expressed distaste for such models, that should have been my first guess instead of blaming the "exotic" models!
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Algorithmic Trading Technology Update - forex trading system pdf

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Algorithmic Trading Technology Update ~ forex trading system pdf


Lately a number of new (at least to me) technologies useful to the algorithmic trader came to my attention:

1) Matlab2IB API

I said in my book that it is difficult to use Matlab as an execution platform. As Max has pointed out, this is no longer true. This inexpensive API connects Matlab to your Interactive Brokers account. It allows you to retrieve historical data, get real-time quotes, and send orders. In other words, all the basic functions you need to create your own execution engine.

2) R

Many people (hat tip: Steve H.) know that R is an open-source (i.e. free) alternative to Matlab. I find that there is also an API that connects R to Interactive Brokers, though I have not tried it myself.

3) Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas (hat tip: Russell M.) is a complete automated trading platform that provides connections to different brokerages (scottrade, IB, TD Ameritrade, etc.)

4) Amazon EC2 cloud computing platform

Running out of PCs to run your myriad strategies? Try Amazons EC2 cloud computing platform. For a modest hourly fee, you get access to an instance of either Linux or Windows environment, and you can add as many instances as you want. The connection speed is supposed to be at least 10x T-1 line, well-suited to high frequency traders . Here is some other performance benchmarks.
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