Statistical electoral vote predictor Update ~ forex trading system price action
For readers who have been tracking the Gott and Colley presidential electoral vote prediction, they will notice a sudden switch over to a predicted Obama victory in the last few days. That is because polls from OH, VA and MO are now available -- surprising because the 3 states are not hitherto known for their Democratic leanings.
It seems to me that, after all, the stability of prediction at this early date is quite questionable due to the paucity of state polls, a point already made by Dr. Colley.
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Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending
market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a
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PREPARE FOR THE WORST...
Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex
system recognizes the trend.
PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.
The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and
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SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY
Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job.
The problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct
question is: "How well the market is trending?"
And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.
Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus only on the most reliable market trends. "Forex Trendy" is a software
solution to find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend reliability for each Forex chart:
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