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Are Triple Leveraged ETFs suitable for long term holding - forex trading strategies with macd

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Are Triple Leveraged ETFs suitable for long term holding ~ forex trading strategies with macd


Triple leveraged ETFs marketed by Direxion have been all the rage lately. The fund management company says that they do not recommend buying and holding these ETFs. But is there any mathematical justification for this caution?

Before I answer this, it is interesting to note that these ETFs (e.g. BGU is 3x Russell 1000, TNA is 3x Russell 2000) are managed as constant rebalanced portfolios, a concept I discussed before. In other words, the fund manager has to sell stocks (or futures) when there is a loss, and buy stocks (or futures) when there is a gain in the market value of the portfolio, in order to maintain a constant leverage ratio of 3. This is also identical to what Kelly formula would prescribe, a methodology discussed extensively in my book, if the optimal leverage f were indeed 3.

However, the optimal f for such market indices are quite a bit lower than 3. Both Russell 1000 and 2000 have f at about 1.8. This means that since the funds are leveraged at 3, there is a real possibility that sustained losses could ruin the funds (i.e. NAV going to zero unless new capital is injected, which, er..., reminds me of a Ponzi scheme). So I would argue that not only should an investor not hold these funds for the long term, the funds themselves should not be leveraged at this level. Otherwise, it is a disaster waiting to happen.
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Triple Profit Winner - forex trading eurusd system

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Triple Profit Winner ~ forex trading eurusd system




Triple Profit Winner is a Forex signal indicator by Karl Dittmann that works on the MetaTrader 4 platform, providing buy and sell signals based on 3 unique signal lines. An entry signal will only be generated when all 3 of the signal lines are in agreement with each other. This ensures the highest probability of a trade being profitable.

Triple Profit Winner features a very helpful informer box that is designed to assist a trader in watching and managing trades. The informer box is located in the upper left corner of every chart. Here is how it looks like:
As can be seen above, the informer box shows the current currency pair, the timeframe the chart is in, the amount of time left until the current candle closes as well as the current trading time. Also, more importantly, it also displays the current signal for each of the 3 signal lines used in Triple Profit Winner.

A trading signal is generated when all 3 of the signal lines come into an agreement. A long (buy) signal is only valid when all 3 of the signal lines are "blue", "green" and "pink" at the same time. A short (sell) signal is only valid when all 3 of the signal lines are "yellow", "orange" and "red" at the same time.
Consider the illustration below:
The blue line starts to show up at the 1st candle, but there are no green and pink lines yet. This is not yet a valid long (buy) signal. At the 2nd candle however, the green line starts, while the blue line continues. On the 3rd candle, the pink line starts, while blue and green lines both continue. Since all 3 signal lines are now in a total agreement, (blue, green and pink) the long (buy) signal on the candle "3" is 100% valid and we can now safely exit our previous short (sell) trade and enter the new (buy) long trade. 

There are couple of exit strategies when using Triple Profit Winner:

  1. Exit trades when the indicator generates the opposite trading signal. This ensures that you trade with maximum profits and right before the market is expected to reverse. This means that if you entered on a buy signal (blue, green, pink), exit as soon as a sell signal is generated (yellow, orange, red). If you entered on a sell signal (yellow, orange, red), exit as soon as a buy signal is generated (blue, green, pink).
  2. Exit trades according to the popup alert Take Profit number (see below).
  3. Exit trades when nearing strong support or resistance levels. This method tends to result in earlier exits (therefore, lower risk and lower returns).

The following are screenshots of a couple of trades on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD H1 charts:

More screenshots of M15 charts:

A pop up window with sound alert showing the trade entry, time frame, currency pair, stop loss and take profit levels will appear whenever a trade signal is generated on all opened charts. This will be useful particularly for traders who do not watch their charts all the time. Email alerts can also be set up to have any trade signals sent to a traders mailbox.

Although the system can be used for any currency pairs and on various timeframes, I personally find that it works best on the major pairs (such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF) and on higher timeframes (i.e. H1 and above).

The Triple Profit Winner package includes the following:
  • Triple Profit Winner MT4 indicator
  • Step-by-step users guide with trade examples and explanation
Triple Profit Winner is priced at $87 and comes with a 60-Day Full Money Back Guarantee. Therefore, traders can try it out without risks.

Find out more about Triple Profit Winner

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