What are we to do with Sharpe ratio - forex trading strategies today

What are we to do with Sharpe ratio ~ forex trading strategies today

I wrote several times before how useless Sharpe ratio is for certain types of strategies: see here and here. Not only is a high Sharpe ratio quite useless in telling you what damage extreme events can do to your equity, a low Sharpe ratio is also quite useless in telling you what spectacular gain your strategy might enjoy in the event of a catastrophe. I came across another brilliant example of the latter category in the best-selling book "The Big Short", where the author tells of the story of the fund manager Mike Burry.

Mike Burry started buying credit default swaps in 2005, essentially an insurance policy on mortgage-backed securities, betting that there will be widespread defaults on mortgages. Of course, we now know how this story would turn out: Mike Burry made $750 million in 2007 alone.  But there was nothing but pain for the fund manager and his investors in 2005-2006, since they had to pay an annual premium of 8% of the portfolio.  Investors who measured the performance of this strategy using Sharpe ratio, without knowing the details of the strategy itself, would be quite justified to think that it was an utter disaster prior to 2007. And indeed, many of them lost no time in trying to pull out their investments.

So what are we to do with Sharpe ratio, with its inherent reliance on Gaussian distributions? Clearly, it is useful for measuring high frequency strategies which you can count on to generate consistent returns every day, but which has limited catastrophic risks. But it is less useful for measuring statistical arbitrage strategies that hold positions over multiple days, since there may well be substantial hidden catastrophic risks in these strategies that would not be revealed by their track record and standard deviation of returns alone. As for strategies that are designed to benefit from catastrophes, such as Mike Burrys CDS purchases or Nassim Talebs options purchases, it is completely useless. If I were to allocate my assets over different hedge funds, I would be sure to include some funds in the first category to generate cash flows for my daily needs, as well as funds in the last category to benefit from the infrequent black-swan events. As for the funds in the middle category, I am increasingly losing my enthusiasm.
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Forex Trading and Risk Return ratio - forex keltner channel trading system

Forex Trading and Risk Return ratio ~ forex keltner channel trading system

by: Andrew Daigle


Forex trading is fast becoming the top method of making money on the internet and plenty of average people are trying their hand at becoming millionaires. For most people, forex trading is a much needed source of a second income, to supplement their current single income from their main profession. However, the true potential to become very wealthy is not tapped by most such investors and they earn mere pennies on the dollar, compared with what they could be earning. While everyone has their own forex currency trading system, this will be in proportion to your risk appetite and will only bring the returns that you strive for.

While there are many ways to invest your money in currency, most people play safe by either investing small amounts or spreading their money very thin across the various currencies they are invested in. This makes for a very small return but practically no risk potential, since the bases are mostly covered so that if one currency depreciates, the other appreciates and the losses are minimal. However, clearly this will never make the forex trader a millionaire.

Life is short, and most forex trading millionaires made their money fast off the forex market. These individuals are generally highly leveraged, because they know that money makes money, and the more money they invest, the greater the risk and the greater the potential reward. Also, betting on unlikely currencies is risky and can have a huge potential upside.

So what exactly will leveraging yourself mean for you? You can start with a portfolio, meaning that you put your investment towards buying a part of the forex trading. Then, you buy shares of the forex trading the world over, depending on what countries appeal to you. The prices of these shares may rise slowly to increase your portfolio, and you are still playing safe. Once your total portfolio value goes over the 5000 dollar mark, you as a forex trader can apply for something known as a console, which now puts you in the position to act as an agent for others. At this point, you can process exchanges for small investors who want to buy and sell currencies through you. For each transaction processed, you will earn a fee of 6% and this can roll into your portfolio, increasing further, making your status as a forex trader more credible.

Other than an unlikely event such as a war or natural calamity, nothing on the forex market will give you a sudden unexpected windfall. Do not expect to become a millionaire over night. You will have to plan and strategize, and most importantly, leverage yourself, to truly make a lot of money. The forex market will generally move like the stock market, in small digits and only when you have plenty of money spread out on the forex market do you stand a chance of making a great deal of profit.

While this type of trading is not for the faint hearted, experience in forex trading will bring some confidence to your forex trading strategy, especially as you learn which systems work for you and which dont. As your level of confidence grows, the process will seem much less daunting. However, it is great to be cautious and be sure of any risks you take. That said, do remember that millionaires are always highly leveraged in the forex market – take calculated risks.
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The limitation of Sharpe ratio - forex trading system trend imperator v2

The limitation of Sharpe ratio ~ forex trading system trend imperator v2

Just as one should not trust VaR completely, one should also beware of high Sharpe ratio strategies. As this Economist article pointed out, a strategy may have a high Sharpe ratio because it has so far been accumulating small gains quite consistently, but it could still be subject to a large loss when black-swan events strike.

Personally, I am more comfortable with strategies that do the opposite: those that seldom generate any returns, but always earn a large profit when financial catastrophes occur.
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