Selecting tradeable pairs which measure to use - free forex trading strategies that work

Selecting tradeable pairs which measure to use ~ free forex trading strategies that work

A guest blog by Paul Farrington

One of the most important factors in statistical arbitrage pairs trading is the selection of the paired instruments.  We can use basic heuristics to guide us, such as grouping stocks by industry in the anticipation that stocks with similar fundamental characteristics will share factor risk and tend to exhibit co-movement.  But this still leaves us with potentially thousands of combinations.  There are some statistical techniques we can use to quantify the tradeability of a pair: one approach is to calculate the correlation coefficient of each pairs return series. Another is to consider cointegration measures on the ratio of the prices, to see if it remains stationary over time.

In this article I briefly summarise the alternative approaches and apply them to a universe of stock pairs in the oil and gas industry.  To measure how effective each measure is in real world trading, I back test the pairs using a simple means reversion system, then regress the generated win rate against the statistical results.  Some basic insights emerge as to the effectiveness of correlation and cointegration as tools for selecting candidate pairs.

Please visit http://www.paulfarrington.com/research/Selecting%20tradeable%20pairs.htm for details of my methodology and results.
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Forex Currency Trading - high gain forex trading system

Forex Currency Trading ~ high gain forex trading system

Forex currency trading is now one of the hottest trading markets in the world today. So by learning about Forex currency trading online you could not only open the door to some incredible investment opportunities, but you may also be able to build a much more diversified investment portfolio for yourself. So how you learn forex currency trading online? Well in this article I will attempt to provide you with some information that will answer this question.

Recently, many people have become interested in forex currency trading online possibly because they heard of the large amounts of money that can be made. As a result, many big companies have now set up online currency trading operations. These websites are certainly of great help to anyone who is actually interested in learning about online Forex currency trading for themselves

For enclosing such an enormous amount of total turnover day after day, FOREX can be considered as a liquid market perfect for foreign currency trading. In contrast to other securities, foreign currency trading does not take place on a fixed exchange rate. In fact, currencies are traded largely between central banks, commercial banks, non-banking international corporations, hedge funds, and private investors and of course, the speculators.

There is one particular site where you can learn about Forex currency trading online. It is the "Forex Online Trading Program" which as been created by the National Futures Association (NFA) at www.nfa.futures.gov. It starts by teaching you the basics of forex currency trading and as you progress through each step, it will provide you with the answers to any questions you may have about forex currency trading.

There are a few reasons why foreign currency trading is beginning to draw more and more medium and smaller sized investors. One of the most important reasons is owing to the fact that FOREX trading operates at 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. In contrast to the old days, where trading was done only through telephone, it can now be done constantly and easily between traders around the globe with the use of the Internet. Moreover, being a volatile financial market, foreign currency trading is the perfect place for profit opportunities as the markets around the globe fluctuate.

By Ray Lam
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GBP JPY STRONG BREAKOUT STARTED ABOVE LARGE CONSOLIDATION - my forex trading system

GBP JPY STRONG BREAKOUT STARTED ABOVE LARGE CONSOLIDATION ~ my forex trading system

This pair has been in a very strong Uptrend that began in 2012, forming an Inner and Outer Uptrend Line and 2 Large Pennant Consolidations. 

DAILY CHART - STRONG UPTREND

We can now see that it has started to breakout from this 2nd Pennant with strong Bullish Candles above Resistance.

DAILY CHART - PENNANT BREAKOUT

The manner in which this started is one of 3 ways in which these Consolidation setups tend to be broken in this market.

1) The First is when the market simply provides a Single Breakout Candle without any pullbacks;

2) The Second way is when the market pulls back on the inside of the barrier and then U-Turns to provide the breakout signal;

3) The Third way- which is what has taken place here - is when the market initially breaks the barrier, U-Turns to test the barrier before U-Turning to give the signal that leads to the breakout;

These alternate forms can be seen in the diagram below taken from the Trading Manual;

DAILY CHART - BREAKOUT SIGNAL

As attractive as this signal has been on the Daily Chart, the size of the Stop Losses required to trade this breakout on the 4 Hour Chart have been too large.

Based on where we would have entered at the close of the Daily Candle, the Stop Loss would have been 332 Pips for the 1st entry option. With the 2nd Bullish Signal, the Stop would have been 169 Pips- both of which are too large for the average Retail Trader.

4 HOUR CHART - ENTRY SIGNALS

So the overall setup and breakout signal on the Daily Chart were strong, but unfortunately can’t be traded based on the Stop Losses required.

In these situations, we simply either wait on another setup on this pair that offers a smaller Stop Loss, or move on to another pair.

VIDEO ANALYSIS OF GBP JPY, MAY 13, 2015

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The Robin Hood regime - best forex trading system 2013

The Robin Hood regime ~ best forex trading system 2013

It has become apparent to me in the last month that there has been a massive transfer of wealth from the gigantic hedge funds running factor models to many day-traders with accounts less than $10M. I call this the Robin Hood regime (regime being a common technical term referring to a particular trading environment, as in "this is a mean-reverting regime"). Many, many day-traders that I heard from have had one of their best months in a long while. Is this just luck, or is there a deeper explanation?

I believe that there is a philosophical difference between factor models and many of the mean-reverting strategies that day-traders like to employ, a difference that works to the day-traders favor. I recall a wise musing from one of my former bosses: he believes that a trading strategy will be profitable in the long run only if it performs a service for other market participants. The service that mean-reverting strategies performs is the provision of liquidity, in particular, short-term liquidity. What service does factor models provide? They seem to be just arrogant bets on the correctness of the managers convictions. For e.g. I believe that stocks with good earnings will rise in value. Or, I believe that stocks with increasing price momentum will continue in that momentum. True, most of the time the convictions of the best managers are correct, and many of these convictions are actually mean-reverting as well (for e.g. the "value" factors). But on average, a factor model may take away as much liquidity from the market as it provides. And sooner or later, some of these convictions are wrong. Maybe not wrong for very long, but long enough to cause investors panic. This may be part of what we are seeing recently.

Now am I advocating that every gigantic fund simply just switch from factor models to pure mean-reverting strategies? No: that would be impractical when the portfolios involved are in the tens of billions. If everybody run mean-reverting strategies, there will hardly be any mean-reversion left to profit from. (Look what happened to pair-trading in the last few years.) When you are an investor in a multi-billion fund, and you expect the fund to deliver higher returns than the risk-free rate, you just have to accept that high short-term returns volatilities will be part of the bargain, just like any long-term investments.
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Selecting A Trading Seminar For Stocks Options Or Forex - new generation forex trading system

Selecting A Trading Seminar For Stocks Options Or Forex ~ new generation forex trading system

Anyone who has watched any late night TV recently cannot have failed to have noticed the many comercials trying to sell you on a series of trading seminars which promise will change your life and make you rich.

Before embarking on a course of trading seminars there are a few very important points that you need to be aware of before making your choice of educational company. In this article we will try and point out some of the things to be aware of.

It was the market melt down during 2000-2003 which has fuelled the huge growth in the trading seminar business. Many people now realize that making money trading is not so easy and requires a good education if you are going to survive all market conditions. This is a better option that just trusting what a fund manager may advise you who may be more concerned about his commission than your retirement.

Bettertrades, Optionetics, Investools and Star Trader are the companies that I see most often on late night TV running their 30 minute commercials. They usuall visit a number of large cities across the country and Ive been able to attend all of their free warm up seminars at some point. Ive also bought seminars and other products from these companies.

The usual sales cycle is as follows, the infomercial is designed to get you to attend what I call the FREE warm up selling seminar. This seminar is usually in a local hotel and can last anything from 30 minutes to 3 hours. From my experience the free Investools seminar lasted about 3 hours and was actually very informative and educational. The others were much shorter and really nothing more than sales pitchs to get you to sign up for a starter seminar which could cost anything from $199 to $4K!.

From my experiance you will 1st be given an inflated price for the seminar which will then be cut dramatically if you sign up on the spot, so be prepared to be tempted by this. Most of these seminars come with a set of DVDs and a manual which enable you to study the material before attending the live seminar.

The following points should be born in mind before signing up for a seminar:

1. Make sure that there is a good refund policy that comes with the package. You should get at least 2 weeks to evaluate the training material that you are given. In addition check what the policy is regards to attending the seminar and then asking for a refund. Sometimes you can only stay until noon on the 1st day, or only the 1st day, before you must ask for a refund if not satisfied. If you wait too long you may lose your right to a refund.

2. Ask what the policy is regarding bringing another family member or business partner to the seminar. Usually you are allowed to bring 1 person, take this opportunity as it is better to have the opinion of another trusted person when trying to evalute if the seminar is good value and right for you.

3. Ask if the price that you are paying for the seminar is the lowest price that is being offered, just like airlines tickets you dont want to sit next to someone at the seminar and find out they paid $500 less than you for exactly the same seminar!

4. Be very sure that the seminar you have signed up for is going to cover what you want to learn. Sometimes the agender is vague and the speaker goes off on their own favourite topics. If you want specific training on stocks, options or Forex make sure that they will be covered in detail in the seminar.

Remember that learning how to trade is not as easy as many people try and make out. These seminar companies are not going to be able, and dont really want to, teach you everything you need to know in a couple of days. They all have an extensive range of follow on seminars and will start to sell these to you during your beginner seminar, so be aware!.

Some of these companies do a really hard sell for their follow up seminars, they are professionals and have practiced their sales pitch many times until it works, so be prepared for this and act accordingly.

If you buy any follow on seminars they are very unlikley to come with an extended refund period other than the minimum 3 days cooling off period set by some states. This is an important point to consider if you are buying a number of seminars that will run over a number of years.

By James J. Dehoiver
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Hedge funds move to easy to understand liquid strategies - forex trading system secrets

Hedge funds move to easy to understand liquid strategies ~ forex trading system secrets

See this interesting article (registration required) on FT on the state of the hedge fund industry. Paul Tudor Jones, Citadel, and Fortress Investment Group are all said to be moving to "easy-to-understand liquid strategies", otherwise known as "statistical arbitrage".

(By the way, I have been urging traders to do just that in my book.)
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Elliott Wave Theory Using it In Forex - how does forex trading system work

Elliott Wave Theory Using it In Forex ~ how does forex trading system work

By CFDFXREPORT

Since the beginning of the Foreign Exchange markets, there have been a number of various trading theories regarding the Forex Market and how it moves.

Everyone one of these theories can be used to understand the Forex market a little better and can help improve our hopes and dreams of making us more profitable traders. One of the most popular theories that is used in Forex Trading is the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Elliot Wave theory has been around for many years now, and was first used in the stock market. It was observed that the market movements on charts can be described as waves which reoccur every now and then.

The theory goes that theres five short waves that appear which are caused by different factors with one effect. For example, a group of people suddenly purchases a certain good which results in a gradual increase shown on charts which would look like a series of waves; after this, a series of three more waves follow but going to the opposite direction which is known as the corrective waves.

As we said before this theory was first used for stock market trading, however because it has been so successful in the stock market trading it has since been applicable to the Forex Market too. The Elliott Wave Theory can be used to so that the Forex Market trader can understand what is going on with the market right now in order to help them with making a trading decision. One of the most vital ingredients to being a successful trader is to understand exactly how the market moves and this crucial when it comes to forex trading.

The majority of people will lose their money in the Forex Market because they simply fail to understand how the forex market works and moves. This is the real benefit of the Elliott Wave Theory.
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